Turkey May Be the Real Victim of Jihadi Attack on Israeli Sailors

On Monday a group of Islamist thugs ambushed Israeli sailors leading them to the port of Ashdod for inspection. The assailants managed to seriously injure several of the Israeli sailors before the Israeli’s asked for and received permission to draw their pistols and defend themselves. The Islamists wounded ten sailors, two critically. Nine of the assailants were killed in the attack.

The ship used to launch the attack was the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmara. This embroils the nation of Turkey in an unwanted conflict and may make the economy of Turkey the real victim of the attack.

The government of Turkey feels that it must save face by “playing tough” with the Israeli’s for detaining Turkish citizens after the attack. Several Turkish politicians have made inaccurate and characterizations of the events on the ship and scheduled joint military exercises with Israel have been canceled.

The Damage

The real damage from the attack and the continuing misunderstandings related to the events on the ship is to the economy of Turkey.

Turkey’s stock market has been in a steady decline since the incident, due to concerns that fragile relations with Israel may negatively impact some $20B in joint projects between the two nations.

Approximately 50,000 Israeli’s have canceled scheduled vacations to Turkey over fears of additional Islamist violence. This deals a significant blow to Turkey’s important tourist sector.

The Turkish company Zorlu Enerji Elektrik Uretim AS could be a significant loser in the attacks, as soured relations between the two countries could jeopardize it’s contracts to help build a $1B power plant in Southern Israel.

These tensions also cause concerns over the sales of military technology between the two nations. Israel supplies Turkey with unmanned surveillance aircraft and also provides Turkey with technology for it’s M60T Main Battle Tank.

Israeli-Turkish trade amounted to approximately $2.5B in 2009. Damage to this trade would represent a significant loss to Turkish exports.

In addition, negative relations between the two nations could damage Turkey’s trade with India, as Israel is a key contributor to a pipeline project that will carry gas, electricity and fiber optic cables between Turkey and India.

The Turkish ruling Justice and Development party must now decide whether it will indeed focus on justice and development or whether it will allow itself to become a tool of Islamist violence.